October 2nd assessment & 3rd Outlook,2025

Bulletin

During the third dekade of October (21-31, 2025), moderate surface water flow is anticipated across the Lower Tekeze, Middle and Lower Abay, Baro-Akobo, Omo-Gibe, Middle and Upper Central Rift Valley, Upper and Middle Wabi Shebele, Genale-Dawa, and Lower Ogaden basins. As a result, river water levels and reservoir storage particularly in dams that still require additional inflow are expected to show a gradual increase. Given that this period marks the transition into the early Bega season, it is crucial to effectively store the available water in regions likely to experience reduced surface runoff and limited rainfall in the coming weeks. This will play a vital role in ensuring sustainable water availability for domestic, agricultural, and energy purposes during the dry months ahead. Conversely, most parts of the Afar-Danakil Depression, the Awash Basin, the Upper Ogaden, and the Tekeze highlands are expected to remain under dry conditions. Hence, proper water resource management and efficient utilization are strongly advised to mitigate potential water shortages in these areas.