The indicated selected analogue year for Bega 2025_26 are 2020/21 and 2017/18, particularly in October and November experienced extended rainfall, resulting in favorable moisture conditions, SPI, vegetation cover, and good Rangeland index distribution across southwestern and western parts of Meher producing areas, as well as the southern pastoral and agro-pastoral regions, the expected slight moisture conditions to the south where Bega is the second rainy season will create favorable conditions for land preparation and sowing crops over the highland parts and insure the availability of pasture and drinking water. Also for the selected analogue years of temperature frost indicated in frost-prone areas of the Northern, Northeastern, Eastern, and Southern highlands. Moreover, the expected to receive moisture in the upcoming month of January will be good for land preparation for the Belg season.

The normal and below-normal moisture expected in the second rainy season of Borena, Guji, Sidama and some parts of the south of the country during the upcoming 2025/26 Bega season is expected to slightly improve the availability of pasture and drinking water, but the expected moisture is expected to be insufficient due to the lowland and vulnerability of the areas to moisture deficiency. On the other hand, the below-normal moisture expected in most parts of southern Somalia during the second rainy season will have a negative impact on the availability of drinking water and pasture.

On the other hand, the unseasonal rains expected in the northern, northeastern, eastern, and central Ethiopia during October and November, which are the main harvest seasons, will have a negative impact on the harvest and post-harvest activities. In contrast, the above-normal rainfall in Benishangul-Gumuz, West Oromia, Gambella and Southwestern Ethiopia will have a positively contribute to full fill the water needs of crops still in growth stages, perennial plants, fodder and drinking water for livestock, but will have a negative impact on the harvest and post-harvest activities in the lowlands and areas where crops are harvested early. However, the expected moisture could negatively affect crop harvesting and post-harvest activities in areas where crops are fully matured. Additionally, the expected extreme minimum temperatures might lead to frost in highland areas prone to frost occurrence.