According to the climate outlook for the 2025 Kiremt (JJAS) season, it is recommended that the following agrometeorological measures be implemented at all levels and under appropriate circumstances to minimize potential negative impacts and maximize available opportunities.

Positive Impacts:

The moisture and vegetation trends are expected to have several positive implications. Notably, the early onset of the rainy season, particularly in the southwestern and western parts of Ethiopia, supports timely land preparation and sowing of Meher crops. Moreover, this also benefits long-cycle crops, which are usually planted during April and May, by ensuring sustained moisture throughout their growth. The late cessation of rains could help fulfill the end-of-season water requirements, enhancing crop yields. The overall moisture conditions are also favorable for fodder production, water storage, and even tree planting, contributing positively to the National Green Legacy Program.

Negative Impacts:

Despite these positives, there are notable risks associated with above-normal rainfall. These include the occurrence of floods, waterlogging, soil erosion, and landslides, especially during the peak months of July and August. Such conditions may delay farm operations due to excessive mud in crop fields, increase the risk of weed infestation, and create ideal conditions for crop pests and diseases, including leaf rust and blight. There is also a high likelihood of fertilizers and pesticides being washed away, which could reduce crop productivity. Furthermore, harvesting of late-maturing Belg crops might be affected due to overly wet field conditions.

Recommendations and Preparedness Strategies for Kiremt 2025:

To mitigate the risks and harness the benefits of the projected seasonal conditions, several agro-meteorological advisories and preparedness measures are proposed:

For the Crop Sector:

• Initiate early land preparation to take advantage of early rains.
• Plant moisture-tolerant crop varieties in flood-prone or waterlogged areas.
• Implement or reinforce soil and water conservation practices to combat erosion.
• Be vigilant and prepare for pest and disease surveillance, especially for threats like rust and fall armyworm.
• Construct and maintain drainage systems in waterlogged zones to protect crops.
• Enhance early warning systems and conduct risk communication in flood- and landslide-prone areas.
• Promote community mobilization for green development initiatives such as the Green Legacy Campaign.

For the Livestock and Pastoral Sector:

• Take advantage of good pasture conditions to build feed reserves.
• Encourage rainwater harvesting and small-scale reservoir development in pastoral areas to ensure water availability for livestock and fodder.
• Raise awareness about the probability of waterlogging and landslides in vulnerable regions.
• Facilitate drainage clearing campaigns to reduce standing water and improve field accessibility.
• Strengthen soil conservation to reduce degradation and promote ecosystem resilience.
• Foster intersectoral collaboration, especially between agriculture, environment, and disaster risk sectors, to co-produce solutions.
• Leverage seasonal and weather forecasts provided by the Ethiopian Meteorology Institute (EMI) to guide decision-making across sectors.