Belg 2024 Assessment and Kiremt 2024 Outlook Agromet Bulletin

Bulletin

According to the given climate outlook for Kiremt (JJAS) 2024, above normal rainfall is anticipated to dominate across the central and south Tigray, Afar, East Amhara northern Somali and eastern portions of the country as well as western Tigray, west Amhara, Benishagulgumuz, west Oromiya, Gambella and South western regions of Ethiopia will dominantly receive above normal rainfall and an increased chance of the domination of normal to above normal expected over central and south-western portions of the country.. The onset of the season is also expected to early over south west portions and follows its normal pattern over much of the JJAS rain benefiting areas of the country. Late cessation expected from western, central, eastern and north eastern portions of the country. Occasional heavy rains during July and August may cause of flood across flood prone areas. Moreover the expected La Niña and positive IOD will benefit the south and southeastern portions of the country. They will get rainfall in the coming August and September months. In line with this, the forecasted early onset across the southwestern and normal over much of the JJAS rainfall benefiting areas will favor land preparation and the timely planting of Meher crops. The expected moisture during June possibly will have positive implication for the existing Belg crops as well as long cycle crops which were planted during April and May. Moreover areas which are positioned in the category of dominantly above normal rainfall may have high chance of getting excesses amount of moisture, In the positive aspect this may favors to sustain agricultural production, including long cycle crops which are planted during April and May, Positive contribution for fodder production and water storage and seeding of tree planting (National Green Legacy Program). The late cessation may favor toward satisfying the water need at end of the season. However, most places under above rainfall category are will get excesses moisture, the expected above average rainfall may cause saturation of soil moisture and leading to water logging, soil erosion, weed infestation, and fungus driven crop diseases. Moreover, due to longer wet spells, application of inputs, such as fertilizers and pesticides may become difficult to apply. The major challenge for areas under above average category is excessive moisture. To cope up this challenge, farmers are advised to select excess moisture tolerant crop varieties for planting. In addition, they should clear the existing drainage channels as well as preparing new drainage structure, if it is required, to drain out excessive moisture from crop fields. Farmers are also advised for getting themselves ready for managing the possible infestation of weed and fungus driven EMI Seasonal Agro-meteorology bulletin Page 24 crop disease. To minimize the risk related to flood, early preparation of diverting the runoff to the normal path of the stream flow is recommended. Generally the following agro meteorological practice is recommended based on the Tercile rainfall category on the coming Kiremt 2024 over the selected woredas expected predominantly above normal rainfall category so the farmers to practices select excess water tolerant crops varieties/cultivars, prepare drainage structure to drain out excess water, postpone fertilizer application, protect weed infestation, conduct wide range of seedling, early preparation for protecting soil erosion, rehabilitating the available drainage systems or establishing new drainage structure, divert excess water to the normal path of their stream flow, continuous scouting of crop fields to monitor the likely occurrence of pest and disease and hunting regularly updated agro meteorological information. Finally users should interpret the weather outlook in terms of their area of interest and the existing condition of their specific areas and immediately disseminate this (early warning) information to decision makers as well as regularly follow-up the updated agro meteorological advisory in regular and timely manner from EMI website www.ethiomet.gev.et