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Climate outlook for Kiremt(JJAS)_2013

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The overall cumulative rainfall of Belg 2013, season shows normal to above normal rainfall over southern half of the nation. Hence, Ganbela, much of Oromia, SNNPR, much of Somali, southern Afar and pocket areas of central Amhara and Tigray received normal to above normal rainfall distribution. On the other hand, the rest parts of the nation experienced below normal rainfall.

In order to indicate the trend of kiremt 2013, the pre-seasonal weather and climatic situation were checked and compared to other years that had shown similar trend with the current year. Therefore, 1981, 1996 and 2001 had similar pattern in rainfall over Ethiopia and Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature anomaly. In general the coming Kiremt is expected under the influence of ENSO-neutral condition. As result, the seasonal rain is expected to start within the normal onset periods over the most parts of the country and Normal cessation of Kiremt rain is expected over most of the Kiremt rain benefiting areas. Normal to above normal rainfall is anticipated over eastern, central western and southwestern sector of the nation. Beside Near normal rainfall is anticipated over northern half with slight below normal over northwestern parts of the country.

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