For more detailed information on the AA Protocol and how it is implemented, click the “AA Protocol” tab at the top of this dashboard.
Click on the woredas on the map to the left to see their name and status. You can toggle the display of various data related to the forecast, observational conditions and trigger status by hovering over the “Layers” button on the top right of the map.
In addition, click the “Woreda Info” tab of this dashboard for a searchable and downloadable table of AA monitoring information by woreda.
This dashboard monitors the status of forecast-based anticipatory action in the Somali Region of Ethiopia.
As of Feb, the regional status for anticipatory action in the 2024 Mar-Apr-May season is:
According to the Anticipatory Action Plan, actions triggered on the basis of this information include the following:
To see previously issued forecasts for the 2024 Mar-Apr-May season, click the “Previous Months” tab. For more details on which actions have been activated according to the Anticipatory Action Plan, click the “AA Activated to Date” tab. For information on the current forecast by woreda, click the “Woreda Info” tab. Finally, click the “Historical Info” tab for past years’ forecasts.
The Forecast-Based Anticipatory Action Plan is triggered according to the following rule.
Further technical details about the AAP, including full historical information by woreda, are available in the Metrics Appendix. To explore the forecast in greater detail, as well as other sources of climate data, consult the AA Design Tool.
For each year, 1991-present, the IRI forecast database retrieves the forecasted probability of non-exceedence associated with the chosen Frequency. For example, the forecast probability at 20% frequency indicates the likelihood during a given year that cumulative MAM precipitation will be at least as dry as the 20th percentile in the historical record, or roughly a 1/5 year drought.
The IRI database calculates the Threshold for triggering action. This is also based on the Frequency; for example, at the 20% frequency, the threshold is set such that the most probable 1/5th of forecasts in the historical record would have triggered action.
To account for the fact that consecutive seasons of drought can have compounding affects in arid areas like Somali Region, two adjustments are made to the forecast threshold.
If the previous OND season’s rainfall (as measured by the Standardized Precipitation Index, SPI) was below its long-term average, 3.5 percentage points are subtracted from the forecast threshold.
If the most recent monthly measurement of MODIS NDVI (for example, November for the December issue forecast) is below its long-term average, 1.5 percentage points are subtracted from the forecast threshold.
The forecast probability for a given year is compared against the adjusted Threshold. If it is equal to or higher than the Threshold, anticipatory action is triggered for that month. If it is less than the Threshold, no action is taken that month.
This process is followed for each forecast issue month - December, January and February.
To minimize the potential for mis-triggering, the AA Technical Working Group has designated certain actions to only trigger if multiple months of issued forecasts have passed the threshold. You can find the cumulative action criteria below, with the current status (according to the region-level average forecast) highlighted.
Use the “filter” box below each column to search for specific records. You can also download the data in full by pressing the “Copy” or “CSV” buttons.
Use the “filter” box below each column to search for specific records. You can also download the data in full by pressing the “Copy” or “CSV” buttons.