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Seasonal Print PDF

Under normal condition, rain giving meteorological conditions starts to retreat gradually southwards starting from September which as a result, the northern half of the country are dominated by cool and dry air. In 2012/13, some parts of the country, particularly northern Ethiopia were dominated by dry and cold temperature. In association with this, the daily minimum temperature over the frost prone highlands of northeastern, southern, central and eastern attained freezing temperature as low as -3.5oC. During the month of October,100-207mm was observed over eastern Gambela, southern section of SNNPR, western and southern Oromiya and central Somali whereas, western Amhara, Benshangul-Gumuz, highlands of western and southern Oromiya ,western Gambela, eastern Tigray and most of Somali recorded 25-100mm. Inadition, heavy rainfall reaching up to 60mm was recorded across some places in a few rainy days. In particular a record fall of 102mm in one rainy day was witnessed at Degahabour in Somali regional state.In the month of November, Tigray, north and western Amhara, Benshangul-Gumuz, western and Southern Oromiya, Gambela, SNNPR and southern Somali had normal to above normal, while the remaining parts of the country were having below normal rainfall activity. During December, southwest Amhara, southern Benshangul-Gumuz, parts of western and southern Oromiya and southern Somali reported normal to above normal. The remaining parts of the country received below normal. On the other hand the month of January was subjected to dry air across many places. However, northern section of SNNPR, western and eastern Oromiya and also eastern Tigray and pocket areas of Amhara had normal to above normal rain.In general, when the seasonal Bega, is compared to the normal situation, western and southern Oromiya, western Amhara, eastern Tigray SNNPR, Gambela, Benshangul-Gumuz and southern Somali had entertained normal to above normal whereas, the remaining parts of the country had below normal rainfall distribution.

The Current and the projected trends of Regional and global meteorological features that can have influences on the seasonal Belg rain have been thoroughly studied. Accordingly, studies have shown that 2007, 19780 and 2005 respectively are analogous years with the upcoming Belg rain distribution. In those years, the onset, amount and distribution was normal, however some analogous years had enhanced rainfall distribution. In addition, near normal rainfall was reported over the main Belg growing areas. On the other hand, dry spells were observed during the main rainy months in some of the analogue years. In view of that, there are evidences that the upcoming Belg season will have normal onset and cessation across various places of the country. Below normal rainfall is anticipated over northeastern and southeastern parts, while central, southwestern, eastern and southern Ethiopia are expected to have near normal rainfall distribution. Western and northeastern are likely to experience normal and above normal rainfall activity. On the other hand, the seasonal rain is predicted to be better in the month of May. The daily maximum temperature will be near normal across many places of the country where as it will be more over the lowlands. In general the seasonal rainfall distribution will be near normal over the western half, while it will be below normal over limited areas of north eastern and southeastern Belg growing areas. However, it is highly likely that the seasonal rain will be better both in amount and distribution than the previous year.

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